Climate change: Fossil fuel making about to soar over next decade

Coal mining in China has increased in 2021

Coal mining in China has increased in 2021

Proposal by governments to draw out fossil fuels up to 2030 are conflicting with keeping global temperatures to safe levels, UN says.

The UNEP production gap report also says countries will drill or mine more than double the levels enough to keep the 1.5C threshold active.

Oil and gas recovery is set to rise suddenly with only a fair reduction in coal.

There has been small change since the first account was published in 2019.

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With the COP26 climate congress just over a week away, there is already a massive focus on the carbon-cutting intentions of the biggest emitters.

Yet in spite of the flurry of net zero emission goals and the enlarged pledges of many countries, some of the biggest oil, gas and coal makers have not roll out plans for the quick reductions in fossil fuels that scientists say are vital to limit temperatures in coming years.

At the beginning of this year, researchers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cautioned of the dangers for humanity of allowing temperatures to increase by more than 1.5C this century. To keep under this threshold will demand cuts in carbon emissions of around 45% by 2030 based on 2010 levels.

An oil rig sets sail – oil production is set to increase over the next decade

Yet in place of curbing carbon, many of the substantial emitting countries are also arranging to a large extent increase their production of fossil fuels, UN says.

The production gap report discovers that countries plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuel than would be compatible with a 1.5C temperature increase by the end of this century. The plans are around 45% more than what’s required to keep the temperature increase to 2C.

Sequel to the study, coal production will decrease but gas will rise the most over the next 20 years, to levels that are simply incompatible with the Paris agreement.

The review outlines 15 major production countries including Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US and UK.

Almost all the governments continue to provide remarkable policy support for fossil fuel production, the authors say.

Fracking has seen huge increases in oil and gas production in the US

“The research is clear: global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5C,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report from the Stockholm Environment Institute.

“However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn.”

Whereas countries have devoted far more of their retrieval spending after the Covid epidemic towards fossil fuel activities, there are some positives when it comes to financing.

providing fund for oil, coal and gas from multilateral banks has reduced remarkably in recent years – and also from some of the richer nations.

“This report shows, once again, a simple but powerful truth: we need to stop pumping oil and gas from the ground if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement,” said Andrea Meza, Costa Rica’s minister for environment and energy.

“We must cut with both hands of the scissors, addressing demand and supply of fossil fuels simultaneously. That is why, together with Denmark, we are leading the creation of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance to put an end to the expansion of fossil fuel extraction, plan a just transition for workers and start winding down existing production in a managed way.”

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