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A tactical entanglement, Putin removed or Russian triumph: Experts layout five different ways the Ukraine war could go, 10 days into Putin’s intrusion

A tactical entanglement, Putin removed or Russian triumph: Experts layout five different ways the Ukraine war could go, 10 days into Putin's intrusion

A tactical entanglement, Putin removed or Russian triumph: Experts layout five different ways the Ukraine war could go, 10 days into Putin’s intrusion

Ten days into Russia’s attack of Ukraine, which started on February 24, President Vladimir Putin (upper right) gives no indication of pulling back. Today Russia’s safeguard service pronounced a truce for the

‘kickoff of philanthropic passages to permit regular people to leave Mariupol and Volnovakha’

expected to have begun from 10am Moscow time (0700 GMT). Troubling pictures from the scene keep on arising, including a picture of a child being protected from the location of a ruthless assault close to Kyiv, while other photographs showed an alarmed lady strolling past a consuming house after Irpin was beat by Kremlin powers. Here are potential situations for the long stretches of time to come. (Imagined upper left, an officer in Avdiivka, Ukraine. Base left, a guide of Ukraine’s adjoining nations. Inset, a Ukrainian tank in Mariupol in 2014. Base right, a stock photograph of an atomic blast)
Specialists have set out five unique ways that Russia’s attack could create
It has been ten days since troops attacked Ukraine with fierce assaults on residents
Today Russia’s safeguard service pronounced a truce for helpful halls
Ten days into Russia’s intrusion of Ukraine, which started on February 24, President Vladimir Putin gives no indication of pulling back.

Earlier today Russia’s safeguard service announced a truce for the ‘launch of compassionate hallways to permit regular folks to leave Mariupol and Volnovakha’ expected to have begun from 10am Moscow time (7am GMT).
Troubling pictures from the scene keep on arising, including a picture of a child being saved from the location of a ruthless assault close to Kyiv, while other photographs showed a frightened lady strolling past a consuming house after Irpin was beat by Kremlin powers.
Notwithstanding this Putin is demanding that Russia isn’t bombarding Ukrainian urban areas, in the midst of mounting fears that 100 individuals are covered under rubble after a loft block close to Kyiv was struck and after a bunch bomb assault on the city of Chernihiv killed 49.

Here are potential situations for the long stretches of time ahead, as per Western government sources and research organization specialists.

Here are possible scenarios for the weeks and months ahead, according to Western government sources and think-tank experts.

A woman reacts as she stands in front of a house burning after being shelled in the city of Irpin, outside Kyiv yesterday

1. Military quagmire as Russian forces get bogged down and Ukraine soldiers keep up hit-and-run strikes 

Ukrainian forces have resisted Russia’s invasion so far, defeating an attempt by paratroopers to seize the capital in the opening days and keeping control over major cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol.

Although Russia claims it has full air superiority, Ukraine’s air defences around the capital Kyiv and in other areas appear to be degraded but still working, Western officials say.

‘That’s caused them so many problems,’

a European source told reporters yesterday on condition of anonymity.

Vast numbers of Ukrainians have also joined territorial defence units and questions remain about the morale of the Russian army and its logistical support.

Ten days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, President Vladimir Putin (pictured) shows no sign of pulling back

Ten days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, President Vladimir Putin (pictured) shows no sign of pulling back
A soldier in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have resisted Russia's invasion so far

A soldier in Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have resisted Russia’s invasion so far
Ukraine crisis: Russia shows tanks block post in Kyiv
Backed by Western intelligence and a flow of anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles, Ukraine’s troops might be able to hold out in the capital and force some sort of military stalemate.

Deepening Western sanctions that are strangling the Russian economy might force Putin to change his calculations.

This week Samuel Charap from the RAND Corporation, a US think-tank, wrote: ‘The West could leverage some sanctions to push Putin to abandon his core war aim of decapitating the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian puppet.’

Pressure from Beijing, increasingly a Kremlin ally under President Xi Jinping, might also be necessary.

Russian policemen detain a protester during rally against Russia entering troops into Ukraine in St Petersburg, Russia, yesterday

Russian policemen detain a protester during rally against Russia entering troops into Ukraine in St Petersburg, Russia, yesterday

2. Toppling of Putin: Anti-war movement grows in Russia and oligarchs turn on their leader 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is keeping a close eye on domestic dissent.

A crackdown on independent media and foreign news providers has removed alternative sources of information about the war, cementing the grip of the ultra-loyal Russian state media.

Nevertheless, small anti-war demonstrations have taken place in cities from Saint Petersburg to Moscow, with at least 6,000 people arrested, according to local rights groups.

There are also signs of cracks in the ruling elite, with some oligarchs, MPs, and even private oil group Lukoil calling openly for a ceasefire or an end to fighting.

Though not seen as likely at this stage, the possibility of Putin being brought down in a popular backlash or even a palace coup is not being ruled out.

‘His personal security is very good and it will be very good until the moment it isn’t,’ said Eliot A. Cohen from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank.

‘That’s happened numerous times in Soviet and Russian history.’

A tank of Russian armed forces during military exercises in the Leningrad region, Russia on February 14, 2022

A tank of Russian armed forces during military exercises in the Leningrad region, Russia on February 14, 2022

3. Russian victory: Putin’s generals crush resistance with massive air power and devastating artillery 

Given Russian troops’ superior weapons, air power and devastating use of artillery, Western defence analysts expect them to continue grinding forward.

A huge convoy of vehicles has been assembled outside of Kyiv ahead of what is expected to be an assault on the capital.

French President Emmanuel Macron concluded that ‘the worst is still to come’ after a call with Putin on Thursday morning.

A Ukrainian soldier was pictured rescuing a tiny baby from a scene of total devastation in Irpin, including what appeared to be a bombed-out bridge

A Ukrainian soldier was pictured rescuing a tiny baby from a scene of total devastation in Irpin, including what appeared to be a bombed-out bridge
Workers pictured yesterday clearing the debris of a school building destroyed by shelling, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, in Zhytomyr, Ukraine

Workers pictured yesterday clearing the debris of a school building destroyed by shelling, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, in Zhytomyr, Ukraine

Putin wants ‘to seize control of the whole of Ukraine’, an aide told reporters afterwards.

But even if Russian troops depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and overrun Ukraine’s resistance elsewhere, Putin would then face the challenge of occupying a nation of 40 million.

Lawrence Freedman, a British warfare historian and King’s College London professor, wrote on Substack this week:

‘Getting into a city is not the same as holding it.’

Belarusian troops take part in a military training in Brest Province, Belarus on Friday, March 3, 2022

Belarusian troops take part in a military training in Brest Province, Belarus on Friday, March 3, 2022

4. Conflict spreads: Fuelled by nostalgia for Soviet Union, Putin puts a move into Moldova on the menu 

Ukraine has a border with four former Soviet states that are now members of the US-led NATO military alliance, which considers an attack on one member to be an attack against all.

Putin’s nostalgia for the Soviet Union and his pledge to protect Russian minorities – which are found in the Baltic States – has left an open question about his territorial ambitions.

After Ukraine, some speculate that Putin might also be eyeing Moldova, a former Soviet state wedged between Ukraine and Romania.

Belarusian troops take part in a military training in Brest Province, Belarus on Friday

Belarusian troops take part in a military training in Brest Province, Belarus on Friday

Few expect Putin to openly attack a NATO member, which would run the risk of nuclear war, but other provocations are possible.

‘Neutral Sweden is keeping a watchful eye on Russia’s intentions towards the Gotland island in the Baltic Sea,’ wrote analyst Bruno Tertrais for the Montaigne Institute, a French think-tank.

Charap warned of the

‘risks of an accident, incident, or miscalculation that spirals into a NATO-Russia war’,

with anything from a stray missile to cyberattacks providing the spark.

A Rafale jet fighter of the French Air Force patrols the airspace over Poland on March 4, 2022, as part of NATO's surveillance system

A Rafale jet fighter of the French Air Force patrols the airspace over Poland on March 4, 2022, as part of NATO’s surveillance system

5. Nuclear war: Conflict sparks major flashpoint between Russia and NATO and leads to World War Three 

This was always thought to be impossible because of the nuclear weapons’ mutual guarantee of destruction.

The US and Russia have opened up a so-called ‘deconfliction line’ over which they can exchange military information quickly to reduce the chances of a misunderstanding.

The same method is employed in Syria, where US and Russian forces have been active on opposite sides of the country’s civil war since 2015.

A stock image of a nuclear explosion. Gustav Gressel, an expert on missile defence, said: 'These announcements are predominately addressed to a Western audience to make us fear and our societies insecure'

A stock image of a nuclear explosion. Gustav Gressel, an expert on missile defence, said: ‘These announcements are predominately addressed to a Western audience to make us fear and our societies insecure’
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, pictured, has warned that a third world war can 'only be a nuclear' one

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, pictured, has warned that a third world war can
‘only be a nuclear’ one

But Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces onto high alert and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that

‘World War Three can only be a nuclear war’.

Western analysts say such warnings should be taken as posturing to deter the United States and Europe from considering ideas such as a ‘no-fly zone’ over Ukraine.

Gustav Gressel, an expert on missile defence at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said:

‘These announcements are predominately addressed to a Western audience to make us fear and our societies insecure.’

They use nuclear deterrence as a form of information operation. There’s no substance.’

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